Dun & Bradstreet U.S. Economic Health Tracker

A Report on Business-Related Economic Trends

October 2026 Report

Dun & Bradstreet's U.S. Economic Health Tracker is a multi-dimensional review of the health of the economy. 

U.S. Small Business Health Index

The Small Business Health Index strengthened markedly over the current reporting period, rising about 6.0% month over month to 93.8, and it now stands well above its level a year ago, up roughly 18.4%. The improvement was broad-based rather than mixed: market activity rebounded strongly, payment risk alerts and small-business delinquency trends extended their gains, and business vulnerability signals also firmed modestly. Small businesses are demonstrating renewed momentum relative to a year ago, with the loss of momentum seen last month reversing rather than extending. With market activity and payment behavior now both providing support, the improvement is spread across components rather than concentrated in a single driver.

U.S. Jobs Health

Based on our proprietary indicators, the labor market is expected to add approximately 50K jobs in September 2026, a notable slowdown from August's estimated gain of 133K jobs. While employment growth remains positive, employers continue to adopt a measured approach to workforce expansion amid slowing economic momentum. Importantly, the slowdown appears to be driven by more selective hiring rather than broad-based layoffs, as labor market conditions remain generally stable. The forecast also comes shortly after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, citing persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. However, the moderation in hiring suggests that labor demand is gradually cooling and eases policymakers’ concerns that labor market strength could reignite inflationary pressures.

*All forecasts are estimated based on D&B data attributes

U.S. Overall Business Health Index

The Overall Business Health Index edged lower over the current reporting period, easing about 0.5% month over month to 62.8, and it remains below its level a year ago, down roughly 7.1%. A sharp pullback in transaction activity was the main drag, partly offset by continued easing in severe delinquency trends and an improvement in operating risk conditions, while past-due payment dynamics softened further. Overall business conditions remain fragile and uneven. The economy continues to generate activity, but the consistency of growth appear limited. Ongoing weakness in early-stage payment behavior (30+ and 60+ days past due) suggests that financial stress remains present across the broader business landscape, keeping the overall environment subdued.

Perspectives

The October Economic Health Tracker presents an economy in which small business conditions continue to improve even as broader business activity remains subdued. Small business health strengthened markedly, with gains across market activity, payment performance, delinquency trends, and business vulnerability indicators. The Overall Business Health Index edged lower, as a decline in transaction activity and continued weakness in early-stage payment behavior outweighed easing severe delinquencies and improved operating risk conditions. Labor market conditions remain stable overall, but hiring momentum slowed has over the reporting.

The broader economic environment continues to be shaped by the balancing act between slowing growth and persistent inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, citing persistent inflation and continued labor market resilience. Recent economic data, however, point to a gradual moderation in labor market activity. Still, Inflation remains persistently above the Fed's target, leaving policymakers focused on balancing price stability against the risk of further slowing growth. Financing conditions remain restrictive and businesses are expected to face pressure from elevated borrowing costs, contributing to softer transaction activity and a more cautious approach to hiring and expansion. The divergence identified last month is becoming more pronounced, with small businesses showing renewed resilience while broader business activity remains uneven. The near-term outlook will depend on whether improving small business fundamentals can offset softer labor market conditions and the continued effects of higher interest rates on business activity.