Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks Retail Momentum Index

The Retail Momentum Index is designed to act as a leading indicator of retail trade activity in the United States.

The Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks Retail Momentum Index combines multi-modal and high-volume global transit intelligence and comprehensive business data to provide a near real-time view of U.S. retail momentum. The index is designed to provide a more timely and nuanced view of the U.S. retail sector, using Advance Monthly Retail Sales published by the U.S. Census Bureau as a benchmark. It aims to provide a forward-looking read on whether retail growth is accelerating, stabilizing, or slowing, allowing decision-makers to detect inflection points before they appear in traditional government reports.

For example, the U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly publication of advance retail and food services sales estimates is one of the most watched indicators of the U.S. economy but is not a complete operating picture of the retail sector. The indicator is often pulled forward by promotions or seasonal timing. It can also be temporarily distorted by inventory drawdowns or replenishment cycles. Moreover, traditional sales measures arrive after many of the decisions that matter for economic momentum have already been made — credit extension, procurement orders, freight bookings, and fulfillment network adjustments.

The Retail Momentum Index combines upstream, high-signal measures of retail conditions—drawn from Dun & Bradstreet intelligence on enterprise behavior (inquiries, payment performance, merchant transactions, and maritime shipping volumes) and FedEx Dataworks logistics footprints (international origin shipments, overland and air volumes, and returns). The objective of the index is not to narrate month-to-month movements in the retail sector, but to illuminate the economic forces driving them. The index is constructed from the following underlying components:

• Market Interest Index
• Payment Performance Index
• Transactions Activity Index
• International Volumes Index
• Overland & Air Volumes Index
• Return Volumes Index

Key Mechanisms

• The Retail Momentum Index diagnoses whether the current activity in the U.S. retail industry is being supported by healthy operations or just carried forward by short-term, price-driven effects.
• The Retail Momentum Index–benchmark gap is the diagnostic signal. When the benchmark (smoothed monthly return of the Advance Retail Sales series published by the U.S. Census Bureau) looks resilient but Retail Momentum Index cools, it typically indicates tighter credit posture, leaner inventory, or lower logistics intensity that can later constrain growth and margins. When the benchmark weakens but Retail Momentum Index holds up, pipeline commitments and supply-chain timing can cushion near-term outcomes. This two-lens view reduces false alarms and improves interpretation of what a given movement in the retail industry actually means.
• The Retail Momentum Index is most informative during transitions in the state of the economy regime shifts. In high-inflation or tightening environments, nominal retail dollars can remain supported while operating conditions deteriorate, creating economically coherent divergence. In lower-inflation regimes, real volumes and sales tend to align more closely, and Retail Momentum Index helps confirm normalization. The index is best used as a dashboard of unique subcomponents rather than a single fixed relationship with retail sales.
• The Retail Momentum Index and its subcomponents are designed to be broadly procyclical, meaning higher index values are generally consistent with periods of relatively stronger retail sector performance. Some subcomponents reflect activity, while others reflect operational frictions that can rise even when sales remain strong.

The Subcomponents of Retail Momentum Index

Each subcomponent of the Retail Momentum Index captures a distinct dimension of retail activity. Taken together, they explain how retail momentum can signal either sustainable growth or increasing operational and profitability risk over the short to medium term.

Market Interest Index:

Based on Dun & Bradstreet B2B inquiry data, this subcomponent reflects business attention and caution. Interest often rises before sales change, especially when uncertainty, tighter underwriting, or supplier checks increase—even if retail activity is flat. It serves as an early signal of where the U.S. retail economy may be heading.

Payment Performance Index:

Powered by Dun & Bradstreet’s proprietary payment performance metrics, this subcomponent tracks early signs of cash‑flow stress. Higher costs, interest rates, and tighter credit show up first as slower payments—before sales weaken. When payment performance improves, it signals easing working‑capital pressure and a more stable operating environment for retailers.

Transactions Activity Index:

Using Dun & Bradstreet’s proprietary merchant credit card data, this subcomponent captures changes in spending behavior. This is expected to surge during reopening and stimulus periods and decline as financial conditions tighten and inventory strategies become more conservative, even though headline retail sales appear stable.

International Volumes Index:

This subcomponent combining the power of Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks data on U.S. retail import volumes. This index reflects sourcing and inventory decisions rather than near‑term sales. Imports and cross‑border flows rise when firms reorder early, hedge risks, or diversify suppliers—often during periods of uncertainty. Declines during destocking are normal, even when retail sales hold up, making these gaps informative rather than concerning.

Overland & Air Volumes Index:

This subcomponent uses FedEx Dataworks’ multi-modal volumes data and summarizes physical movement of retail goods by truck and air. Logistics choices, e‑commerce fulfillment strategies, and price effects can cause shipment volumes to move differently from reported retail sales at turning points for the retail sector.

Return Volumes Index:

Sourced from FedEx Dataworks’ database, this subcomponent acts as a delayed signal of past sales and fulfillment quality. Volumes increase with higher online sales, promotions, and tighter household budgets, and can be amplified by policy or routing changes. This subcomponent highlights margin pressure and reverse‑logistics costs that are not visible in headline retail sales figures.

Retail Momentum Index: May 2026

Latest Reading and Direction

The latest U.S. Retail Momentum Index reading is for May 2026, with an index level of 68.8; the index changed by -1.8% month over month compared with the previous reporting period.

Largest monthly movers across subcomponents

Among the six subindices, the largest month-over-month increase was in the Overland & Air Volumes Index at +0.02%, and the largest month-over-month decrease was in the International Volumes Index at -5.7%. Overall, the International Volumes Index was the largest contributor to the month-over-month change in the overall Retail Momentum Index.

Market Activity and Commercial Conditions

In May 2026, the Market Interest Index is 60.6 (MoM -0.2%), the Payment Performance Index is 85.9 (MoM -1.1%), and the Transactions Activity Index is 37.2 (MoM -3.3%); together these subcomponents summarize commercial operating conditions of U.S. retail businesses, including counterparty screening intensity, trade-credit/payment discipline, and transaction frictions that typically adjust before, or alongside, realized retail sales momentum.

Supply Chain Flows and Signals

In May 2026, the International Volumes Index is 69.5 (MoM -5.7%), the Overland & Air Volumes Index is 104.8 (MoM +0.02%), and the Return Volumes Index is 53.8 (MoM -1.7%); together these indicators summarize the U.S. retail sector's physical flow conditions across cross-border replenishment, domestic fulfillment throughput, and reverse-logistics pressure, which shape how quickly retail sales momentum can translate into capacity utilization, inventory timing, and margin outcomes.