Strait of Hormuz Shipping Disruption: Observed Trade Exposure and Operational Risk Indicators

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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – March 6, 2026 – Container shipping activity linked to the Strait of Hormuz has shown a measurable deterioration following events beginning on February 28, 2026, with cancellations exceeding new bookings across multiple consecutive days in both import and export flows.

Dun & Bradstreet analysis of container booking data identifies widespread entity level exposure, elevated cancellation volumes, and concentration of impact among specific sectors and firm sizes. The findings describe observable operational disruption patterns affecting Gulf connected trade lanes.

Scope of exposure

• Shipments included in this analysis are defined as container flows where either the origin or destination port is located in Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, or Saudi Gulf ports (Ad Dammam, Jubail), with the counterparty located outside the region.
• The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global trade corridor. Countries in the region account for an estimated 36% of global crude oil exports, alongside refined petroleum products, natural gas, petrochemicals, fertilizers, metals, and selected agricultural goods.
• For shipments that departed before February 28 and are scheduled to arrive on or after that date, 44,633 businesses across 174 economies are associated with at least one exposed shipment.
  • The highest concentrations of exposed entities are observed in China (11.66%), the United Arab Emirates (10.77%), Saudi Arabia (6.51%), India (5.38%), and Pakistan (5.06%), with the top ten countries accounting for approximately 55% of impacted entities.

Observed shipping flow disruption

Imports

• Between March 1 and March 3, newly booked import volumes declined 59% compared with the same three‑day period one week earlier (February 22–24), falling from 25,144 twenty-foot equivalent unit containers (TEUs) to 10,382 TEUs. Over the same period, cancelled import bookings increased 364%, from 8,010 TEUs to 37,193 TEUs.
• Across this three-day period, cancelled import volumes exceeded new bookings by 265%. On March 3, import data recorded 21,762 TEUs cancelled compared with 1,915 TEUs booked – only 13% of the volume booked a week earlier and the lowest weekday non-holiday booking level observed since the start of 2024.

Exports

• Export booking activity declined by more than 40% from mid-February to early March. Between March 1 and March 3, new export bookings fell 40% week-over-week, while cancellations increased 56%.
• On March 3, cancelled export volumes (1,309 TEUs) exceeded booked volumes (1,095 TEUs) for the first time within the observed period.

Sector and firm size distribution

The highest concentrations of exposed entities, based on observed containerised shipping flows, are observed in:

• Transportation services (18.04%)
• Wholesale trade (27.49%)
  • When combined with food-related industries and non-classifiable establishments, these categories account for approximately 55% of impacted entities.

Exposure is heavily skewed toward smaller firms, with approximately 80% of impacted businesses in the Dun & Bradstreet Shipping Insights dataset representing micro and small enterprises (fewer than 50 employees).

Financial risk indicators span the full spectrum, with around 45% of entities in lower D&B Supplier Stability Indicator (SSI) risk bands (1–3) and approximately 31% in mid-risk bands (4–6), indicating broad based exposure rather than concentration among already distressed firms.

Product categories affected

Shipment cancellations are observed across a range of product groups, including:

• machinery and mechanical appliances
• vehicles and vehicle parts
• plastics, rubber, paper, and wood products
• food categories such as fruit, nuts, dairy, and flour preparations
• metals and chemicals, including aluminium, copper, and organic chemicals.

Observed disruption pathways and risk indicators

Shipping data shows sustained periods where cancellations exceed new bookings, alongside evidence of rerouting activity within the UAE, including major ports such as Jebel Ali. As of end-of-day March 3, 3,373 businesses (identified by Dun & Bradstreet D‑U‑N‑S Numbers) had experienced at least one shipment cancellation since February 28.

Considerations for Supply Chain Risk Management 

Based on observed booking, cancellation, and rerouting patterns associated with Strait of Hormuz trade lanes, the data highlights several near- and longer-term considerations for risk and supply chain teams. 

Near-term considerations 

Assess immediate exposure beyond tier-one suppliers 

Observed cancellations span a wide range of firm sizes and sectors, with a high concentration among micro and small businesses. Organisations may want to assess: 

• The extent of exposure across tier-one and tier-two suppliers connected to Gulf trade lanes
• Whether time sensitive or business critical shipments are among those experiencing cancellations or delays 

Identify alternative sourcing and routing scenarios 

Sustained periods where cancellations exceed new bookings, alongside evidence of rerouting activity within the UAE, underscore the importance of: 

• Understanding where alternative suppliers or routes exist outside impacted corridors
• Evaluating whether alternative options can realistically offset delays, based on onboarding time, transit duration, and the connectivity of alternative ports and routes, rather than assumptions

Longer-term considerations 

Embed disruption signals into ongoing risk monitoring 

The patterns observed in this analysis – including declining rolling seven-day booking volumes and deterioration in port connectivity rankings – reinforce the value of: 

• Monitoring booking-to-cancellation ratios over time
• Tracking port-level connectivity and routing changes, not just shipment volume

Invest in visibility across extended supply networks 

With exposure spread across risk bands and geographies, the data suggests disruption is not limited to already distressed firms. Building resilience increasingly depends on: 

• Visibility beyond tier-one suppliers
• The ability to link trade activity, firmographics, and risk indicators to support faster, evidence-based decision making during periods of uncertainty

Strengthen scenario planning capabilities 

Traditional risk registers tend to focus on known risks with historical probabilities. Scenario planning extends this approach by: 

• Stress-testing supply chains against extreme but plausible disruption scenarios
• Revealing hidden interdependencies and single points of failure across trade lanes, suppliers, and geographies
• Supporting the development of predefined response options before disruption occurs 

Together, these capabilities can reduce decision latency when disruption materialises – often the difference between continuity and prolonged impact. 

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Dun & Bradstreet Media Contact:
Anne Douglass
[email protected]