Global Economic Outlook Q2 2026: Iran Conflict and Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

A Resilient but Risk-Heavy Global Economy Faces Supply Chain Shocks and Growth Risks

Dun & Bradstreet’s Q2 Global Economic Outlook shows a slowing global economy as the Iran conflict disrupts energy and transport routes. The interruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz – which usually carries around 20 million barrels of oil per day, or about one-fifth of global consumption – is affecting fuel prices, shipping reliability, and inflation in multiple regions.

• Global growth slows as risks shift downward: The global economy is losing momentum as the Iran conflict evolves into a broad supply and confidence shock, weighing on transport, energy availability, and inflation trajectories.
• Record energy disruption complicates policy: The International Energy Agency describes current conditions as the largest oil supply disruption on record, raising costs and stretching supply chains. Central banks now face conflicting pressures of weaker growth and renewed cost-push inflation. 
• Businesses face higher continuity and credit risks: Dun & Bradstreet’s country risk ratings show deteriorating conditions across the Middle East and rising operational pressures globally, especially for import-dependent, energy-intensive and trade-linked sectors.

The global economy enters Q2 on uncertain footing. While underlying demand in several regions remains intact, the Iran conflict has reshaped the risk landscape. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reduced to a trickle, the shock is reverberating through energy-intensive industries, aviation, global shipping networks, and fertilizer-dependent agricultural markets.

Business continuity risk has risen sharply. Aviation and cargo schedules across the Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean continue to face rerouting and cancellations, weakening the reliability of key hubs. Major liner operators have redirected vessels away from Hormuz, adding 10-14 days on Asia–Europe and Asia–U.S. East Coast routes. Supply chain delays, higher insurance premiums, and stop-go operating conditions are becoming the norm for firms with Middle East exposure.

The short-term economic outlook has softened across multiple regions as high energy, freight, and input costs collide with fragile demand. Disruption in global fertilizer trade is creating a lagged inflation channel that threatens food prices later in the year. Several Asian governments have already moved into contingency planning as feedstock availability weakens.

Political insecurity is also rising. The widening regional conflict has increased the probability of sudden escalations, new corridor restrictions, and security incidents involving regional armed groups, especially around the Red Sea/Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, a critical link for Asia-Europe shipping.

Across regions, the Q2 story is one of uneven resilience:

• North America faces higher energy and logistics costs, with U.S. firms seeing tighter cash flow cycles and weakening payment dynamics.
• Western Europe confronts both energy price spikes and logistical strain. Slovenia, Luxembourg, Denmark, Belgium, Finland, and Sweden have high maritime trade exposure – with over 40% of DUNS in these countries facing or likely to face disruption to shipments through the strait.
• Asia Pacific is contending with elevated fuel prices, longer shipping routes, and rising inflation pressures from volatile input supplies.
• Eastern Europe & Central Asia remain sensitive to shifting energy flows and trade corridor fragility, with governments moving to improve the resilience of transit infrastructure.
• Latin America is absorbing higher energy and fertilizer costs, with inflation risks prompting subsidies and cautious monetary policy actions.
• Middle East & North Africa face sharp near-term growth slowdowns and food security risks as trade through Hormuz stalls and key liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure sustains damage.
• Sub-Saharan Africa is exposed to fertilizer shortages and rising transport costs, with humanitarian and food security pressures intensifying.

The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside – the global economy is navigating a critical moment, and business resilience will be tested worldwide.

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