Global Business Optimism Insights

Global Business Optimism Rebounds 3.5% for Q1 2026

• Dun & Bradstreet’s survey of ~10,000 business leaders around the world reveals a 3.5% rebound in the Global Business Optimism Index for Q1 2026 after four consecutive quarters of decline.
• Increasing clarity on tariff scenarios, stronger supply chain conditions, and refined financial planning are fueling a more positive outlook.
• Businesses are targeting tech-enabled, productivity-enhancing capital expenditure, drawing on internal cash flows rather than external borrowing.

After a year marked by economic uncertainty, global business optimism is on the rise for Q1 2026. Improving expectations for export orders, supply chain operations, and financial planning indicate businesses are preparing for the quarter with more confidence. Services and small businesses are leading the recovery, while large businesses and a few economies remain cautious.

In the United States, businesses’ overall confidence remains flat, with inflation concerns weighing heavily as 35.4% of U.S. respondents cite inflation as their top risk for 2026. Sector-wise, global optimism is strongest in consumer-facing industries such as food manufacturing, textiles, and wholesale and retail trade.

Looking ahead, growth priorities center on technology and efficiency. Over 60% of respondents see technological innovation as the key driver for 2026, reinforcing a technology-led investment cycle focused on artificial intelligence-driven efficiency and automation.

This momentum is anchored by clearer policy paths, steadier financing, and supply chain normalization. 

• The Global Business Optimism Index: up 3.5%, ending a year-long slide. Small businesses led (+11.4%) the rise, followed by medium-sized businesses (+3.4%), while large businesses dipped (-3.2%) amid weaker inventory turnover. Notably, large businesses’ optimism about days of inventory outstanding fell 23.5%.
• The Global Supply Chain Continuity Index rose 6.6%, with 28 of 32 economies reporting improved delivery times and lower supplier costs.
• The Global Business Financial Confidence Index is up 6.2%, reflecting improving expectations for margins and liquidity planning.
• The Global Business Investment Confidence Index rose 6.2%; 70% expect higher capital expenditure, with most planning to use internal cash rather than new debt.
• The Global Business ESG Index, which provides a comprehensive assessment of companies’ performance in implementing ESG initiatives, improved 5.1%, driven by customer and supply chain requirements.

What Is GBOI?

This report is a comprehensive exploration of business optimism worldwide. It delves into the aspirations and sentiments of business leaders to bring you a holistic perspective on the economic landscape.

Scope and Precision

As businesses navigate an ever-changing global landscape, the Dun & Bradstreet^® GBOI equips you with the foresight needed to make informed decisions. Our report - which covers 32 economies (accounting for approximately 70% of global GDP) - is a synthesis of data from a comprehensive survey involving approximately 10,000 businesses. This extensive reach ensures that the insights provided are representative and reflective of diverse global perspectives.

To help businesses navigate an ever-changing global landscape, Dun & Bradstreet also offers Country Insight Solutions, which provide forecasts and business recommendations for 132 economies. These solutions help businesses to monitor and respond to economic, commercial, and political risks. Learn more about our country risk analysis and reports here.