Dun & Bradstreet U.S. Economic Health Tracker

A Report on Business-Related Economic Trends

August 2026 Report

Dun & Bradstreet's U.S. Economic Health Tracker is a multi-dimensional review of the health of the economy. 

U.S. Small Business Health Index

The Small Business Health Index declined more noticeably over the current reporting period, easing about 2.2% month over month, though it continues to stay well above its level a year ago. Unlike recent months, the softness was broad-based: payment-related indicators and small-business delinquency trends both weakened, while market activity and business vulnerability signals also deteriorated. Overall, small businesses continue to demonstrate resilience relative to a year ago, but the renewed loss of momentum suggests the recent recovery is losing steam. With payment behavior no longer providing support and underlying vulnerabilities rising, financial pressures are becoming more visible beneath the surface.

U.S. Jobs Health

Based on our proprietary indicators, the labor market added approximately 95K jobs in July 2026, rebounding from June's softer 57K print and broadly in line with the year-to-date average of roughly 92K per month. The recovery was supported by a normalization in seasonal hiring patterns following World Cup-related distortions that weighed on leisure and hospitality payrolls in the prior month. A continued decline in labor force participation flatters the headline figure. Initial jobless claims through mid-July fell to their lowest level of the year, suggesting that the moderation in hiring has not been accompanied by a rise in separations. Overall, the data point to a labor market that remains intact but continues to operate in a more selective and cautious hiring environment, with employers prioritizing retention over expansion.

*All forecasts are estimated based on D&B data attributes

U.S. Overall Business Health Index

The Overall Business Health Index edged marginally higher over the current reporting period, rising about 0.2% month over month after several months of decline, though it remains below its level a year ago. Improvement in transaction activity and a further easing in severe delinquency trends supported the index, but these gains were partly offset by softer past-due payment dynamics and a modest deterioration in operating risk conditions. Overall business conditions remain fragile and uneven. The economy continues to generate activity, but the consistency of growth appear limited. Ongoing weakness in early-stage payment behavior (30+ and 60+ days past due) and persistent operational pressures suggest that financial stress remains present across the broader business landscape, keeping the overall environment subdued.

Perspectives

The August Economic Health Tracker presents an economy where the loss of momentum flagged last month is becoming more visible. Small business conditions weakened more noticeably, with the decline broad-based across payment behavior, delinquency trends, market activity, and business vulnerability signals. The Overall Business Health Index edged marginally higher on firmer transaction activity, though persistent weakness in early-stage payments and rising operational pressures point to fragile stabilization. Labor market conditions improved modestly from June's soft print, but hiring remains limited to a few sectors.

The monetary policy backdrop remains a key driver of the economy. The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in July, but three FOMC members dissented in favor of a hike, revealing a widening divide within the committee. Inflation offered near-term relief in June — headline CPI fell to 3.5% and PCE eased to 3.7% — driven largely by a temporary decline in energy prices that has since partially reversed as oil markets remain volatile. Core inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, leaving the durability of the improvement in question. Second-quarter GDP growth came in at 1.5% annualized, below expectations, with consumer spending and AI-related investment providing support while trade, government spending, and inventories acted as drags. The transition toward slower growth identified last month is continuing, with the near-term outlook shaped by energy price volatility, the persistence of core inflation, and the degree to which the labor market's current equilibrium can hold.