Dun & Bradstreet U.S. Economic Health Tracker
September 2016 Report
Dun & Bradstreet's U.S. Economic Health Tracker is a monthly, multi-dimensional review of the health of the economy. Read and download the latest report for key insight on small business, jobs, and overall business performance. Come back regularly for new updates, published the Tuesday prior to the first Friday of each month.
This month, Dun & Bradstreet’s proprietary indicators are unable to provide any enthusiasm for the outlook for small business performance in the U.S. during the second half of 2016, or that of the economy as a whole. Only a handful of sectors like Business Services or Construction help to maintain a faint air of optimism with scattered and meager improvements.
Labor market performance does provide some silver lining, but remains limited to the broad-based metrics. With this month’s report being one of the only three reports before Election Day and the prospect of the Fed’s raising rates getting stronger, the importance of the labor market performance continues to grow. Meanwhile, overall aggregate business fundamentals have weakened in 2016 and the trend continues to worsen. Each successive move down means businesses are recording less fundamental strength and resiliency.
The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Overall Business Health Index provides a year-over-year weighted average of Dun & Bradstreet’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The index ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all businesses recording low levels of risk). Report based on data available as of August 27, 2016.