Dun & Bradstreet U.S. Economic Health Tracker

A Report on Business-Related Economic Trends

June 2026 Report

Dun & Bradstreet's U.S. Economic Health Tracker is a multi-dimensional review of the health of the economy. 

U.S. Small Business Health Index

The Small Business Health Index remained practically unchanged over the current reporting period, increasing by less than half a point. However, with this modest increase the index continues to extend its recent recovery and remains above year-ago levels. The monthly increase was supported by stronger payment-related indicators and continued improvement in small-business delinquency measures, although market activity and broader vulnerability signals saw modest softening. The takeaway is that small businesses continue to show resilience, but the improvement is not yet broad-based. Activity remains firm enough to support momentum, though pockets of financial strain are still evident beneath the surface.

U.S. Jobs Health

According to our proprietary indicators, the labor market added approximately 155K jobs in May 2026, following gains of 179K in April and 214K in March, and a sharp contraction of -156K in February. Recent payroll data point to continued volatility in monthly job creation, with employment gains alternating between periods of stronger expansion and episodic pullbacks. Despite this variability, the net trend over recent months remains positive, indicating that hiring activity has not stalled. The labor market is still generating jobs but with reduced consistency and momentum. Hiring patterns suggest that firms remain cautious, adjusting staffing levels in response to shifting demand conditions rather than pursuing sustained expansion.

*All forecasts are estimated based on D&B data attributes

U.S. Overall Business Health Index

The Overall Business Health Index, like SBHI, registered a modest change over the current reporting period, declining by 0.3 points and continuing its broader downtrend and remaining below its level a year earlier. Transaction activity and the incidence of severe delinquency among businesses improved modestly. However, the decline in the headline index was driven by weaker payment dynamics—capturing early-stage delinquencies (30+ and 60+ days past due) —alongside a continued declining trend in operating risk. Overall business conditions are becoming less balanced and more fragile. The economy is still generating activity, but growth appears narrower, turnover is slowing, and financial pressures are becoming more visible across the wider business base.

Perspectives

The U.S. economic outlook for the second half of 2026 points to a continuation of moderate but uneven expansion, with growth expected to moderate while underlying conditions become more complex. Monetary policy remains restrictive relative to prior years, and although inflation has eased from recent highs, it is expected to decline only gradually toward target, keeping financial conditions tight and limiting the pace of acceleration. At the same time, the composition of growth continues to shift. Consumer spending and targeted areas of business investment—particularly those linked to technology and productivity enhancement—are providing support to activity, even as other segments show signs of cooling. Labor market conditions remain stable overall, but hiring dynamics have become more cautious, reflecting a broader transition from expansion to adjustment under slower-growth conditions.

The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside. Persistent cost pressures in key categories, and the potential for renewed supply disruptions—particularly through energy and global trade channels—could weigh on both growth and disinflation progress. At the same time, structural tailwinds, including continued investment in technology and productivity-enhancing capabilities, provide an offset that is helping to sustain expansion, albeit on a narrower base. The economy continues to expand, but with reduced breadth, greater sensitivity to shocks, and increased divergence across sectors. Forward-looking conditions suggest that maintaining momentum will depend on the interplay between easing inflation, policy calibration, and the durability of demand in a more constrained operating environment.