December 2018 Report
Dun & Bradstreet's U.S. Economic Health Tracker is a monthly, multi-dimensional review of the health of the economy. Read and download the latest report for key insight on small business, jobs, and overall business performance. Come back regularly for new updates, published the Tuesday prior to the first Friday of each month.
The Small Business Health Index once again recorded strong m/m improvement in October rising to a 20-month high amid a persistent fall in the failure ratio component. Additionally, the annual pace of the index continues to accelerate rising at the fastest gain since September 2015. Additionally, we forecast that gains in nonfarm payrolls will rise above the 190,000 level in October with job gains remaining positive across all major verticals. Meanwhile, our Overall Business Health Index fell to a one-and-a half year low this month. The velocity and the breadth of October’s m/m decline should raise concerns as business migrate from the lower risk toward higher risk for recording payment difficulty.
Overall, this month’s economic tracker remained mixed, while small business health continues to set multi-year highs and the labor market is forecast to record continued job gains in this month’s number our overall business health index continues to display weakness and rising risk within the system.
The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Overall Business Health Index provides a weighted average of Dun & Bradstreet’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The index ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all businesses recording low levels of risk). Report based on data available as of November 28, 2018.