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Dun & Bradstreet U.S. Economic Health Tracker

A monthly report on business-related economic trends

June 2018 Report

Dun & Bradstreet's U.S. Economic Health Tracker is a monthly, multi-dimensional review of the health of the economy. Read and download the latest report for key insight on small business, jobs, and overall business performance. Come back regularly for new updates, published the Tuesday prior to the first Friday of each month.

Perspectives

The highlight of this month’s Tracker is the decisive bounce-back of the U.S. Small Business Health Index after months of lackluster performance, but the level of the index does remain low for this stage of the business cycle, signaling near-term growth headwinds for small business. The m/m performance of the verticals indices was mixed, and Retail was the only vertical to gain on an annual basis. Meanwhile, businesses recorded another month of improving balance sheet health as the aggregate of all active and open businesses remain at the lowest risk level since the inception of the index in 2010.

Overall, this month’s Tracker delivers an air of optimism with a long-awaited bounce-back in the Small Business Health Index and an uptick in the Overall Business Health Index in unison. Despite gradually tightening monetary policy and geopolitical headwinds, businesses of all sizes seem to be putting forward a stronger performance and demonstrating improved stability and better ability to pay their suppliers within terms. We continue to project an optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy, at the same time keeping a cautious eye on the policy uncertainties.

Methodology

The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Overall Business Health Index provides a weighted average of Dun & Bradstreet’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The index ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all businesses recording low levels of risk). Report based on data available as of May 27, 2018.

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