Dun & Bradstreet U.S. Economic Health Tracker

A Report on Business-Related Economic Trends

September 2026 Report

Dun & Bradstreet's U.S. Economic Health Tracker is a multi-dimensional review of the health of the economy. 

U.S. Small Business Health Index

The Small Business Health Index was broadly stable over the current reporting period, easing about 0.2% month over month, while remaining well above its level a year ago, up roughly 12.6%. The composition was mixed rather than broad-based: payment risk alerts and small-business delinquency trends both improved, while market activity softened and business vulnerability signals deteriorated. Overall, small businesses continue to demonstrate resilience relative to a year ago, and the sharper loss of momentum seen last month has largely stalled rather than extended. With payment behavior now providing modest support, the pressure is concentrated in market activity and underlying vulnerability rather than across the board.

U.S. Jobs Health

Based on our proprietary indicators, the labor market is expected to add approximately 45K jobs in August 2026, a modest rebound from July's unexpected loss of 23K but well below the year-to-date average of roughly 61K per month. Initial jobless claims remained anchored near historic lows through the August survey window, confirming that the weakness continues to reflect cautious hiring rather than rising separations. The employment situation is unlikely to be the decisive at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, signaling policy path more dependent on the upcoming CPI release. Overall, the labor market has shifted from gradual cooling to stabilization, operating in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium where employers are neither meaningfully expanding or reducing headcounts, leaving payroll growth constrained to a modest pace and increasingly dependent on a set of resilient sectors.

*All forecasts are estimated based on D&B data attributes

U.S. Overall Business Health Index

The Overall Business Health Index edged higher again over the current reporting period, rising about 0.3% month over month, though it remains below its level a year ago, down roughly 6.8%. A further pickup in transaction activity and continued easing in severe delinquency trends supported the index, with operating risk conditions essentially flat, while softer past-due payment dynamics remained the main drag. Overall business conditions remain fragile and uneven. The economy continues to generate activity, but the consistency of growth appears limited. Ongoing weakness in early-stage payment behavior (30+ and 60+ days past due) suggests that financial stress remains present across the broader business landscape, keeping the overall environment subdued.

Perspectives

The September Economic Health Tracker presents an economy that is steadying rather than deteriorating further. Small business conditions were broadly flat, with improvement in payment risk alerts and delinquency trends offsetting softer market activity and rising business vulnerability. The Overall Business Health Index edged higher again on firmer transaction activity, though persistent weakness in early-stage payments points to fragile stabilization. Labor market conditions improved modestly from July's soft print, but hiring remains limited to a few sectors.

The monetary policy backdrop remains a key driver of the economy. The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in July, but three FOMC members dissented in favor of a hike, revealing a widening divide within the committee. Inflation offered near-term relief in July — headline CPI fell to 3.4% and PCE eased to 3.7% — driven largely by a temporary decline in energy prices that has since partially reversed as oil markets remain volatile. Core inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, leaving the durability of the improvement in question. Second-quarter GDP growth came in at 1.5% annualized, below expectations, with consumer spending and AI-related investment providing support while trade, government spending, and inventories acted as drags. The transition toward slower growth identified last month is continuing, with the near-term outlook shaped by energy price volatility, the persistence of core inflation, and the degree to which the labor market's current equilibrium can hold.