February 2019 Report
Dun & Bradstreet's U.S. Economic Health Tracker is a monthly, multi-dimensional review of the health of the economy. Read and download the latest report for key insight on small business, jobs, and overall business performance. Come back regularly for new updates, published the Tuesday prior to the first Friday of each month.
The Small Business Health Index once again recorded improvement in December and rose to a near two-year high on the back of the failure ratio component which has fallen to a 4-year low. However, weak levels in the other subcomponents is causing us some distress regarding our full-year growth forecast. Additionally, we forecast that gains in nonfarm payrolls will be 170,000 in January, after adjusting for the partial government shutdown. Meanwhile, balance sheet health as measured by our Overall Business Health Index has fallen to a three and a half year low, indicating that payment stability and performance continues to worsen among active and open businesses.
Overall, this month’s economic tracker remained mixed, while small business health continues to set multi-year highs and the labor market is forecast to record continued job gains in this month’s number our overall business health index continues to display weakness and rising risk within the system.
The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Overall Business Health Index provides a weighted average of Dun & Bradstreet’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The index ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all businesses recording low levels of risk). Report based on data available as of January 28, 2019.