Dun & Bradstreet’s forecast: Bankruptcy risk has declined, but payment remarks signal trouble ahead

According to a report by Dun & Bradstreet, a leading global provider of business data and analytics, approximately 2,200 companies in Finland are at risk of bankruptcy over the next 12 months. The number of bankruptcies stays high in 2025, even though the overall risk has slightly declined from last year. Elevated levels of payment remarks across all sectors suggest trouble may be looming.

In Finland, the risk of bankruptcy fell in September compared with August (–2.04%) and the previous year (–4.95%). According to Dun & Bradstreet’s forecast, the national bankruptcy risk currently stands at 0.96%, down from 1.01% a year ago. However, the model predicts that around 2,200 companies will still go bankrupt within the next 12 months.

“In roughly half of all industries, the risk of bankruptcy is still on the rise, like transportation and storage, and arts, entertainment and recreation. In the other half, the risk is declining clearly, as in construction, and information and communication. However, payment remarks are rising across virtually all industries. We are seeing the risk of bankruptcy starting to level off, but the number of bankruptcies remains relatively high from a historical perspective,” says Sari Uusitalo, Country Manager at Dun & Bradstreet Finland.

Accommodation and food services (2.55%) and construction (1.49%) sectors remain the most at risk. The rise in payment remarks indicates continued financial pressure in these industries, but there was a slight improvement when comparing the August and September figures.

In hotels and restaurants, the risk is still high due to weakened consumer demand affecting both work and entrepreneurs. The risk has continued to rise by 7.11% year-on-year, while the number of payment remarks is up by 6.41%, suggesting increasing financial strain. The sector also has the highest share of companies with payment remarks—17.61%.

The construction sector, which ranks second in risk levels, has the highest number of companies (469) currently under bankruptcy threat. On a positive note, the overall bankruptcy risk has fallen by 16.89% since last year. However, payment remarks in the sector have increased 3.93% year-on-year, with 13.36% of companies affected.

Regionally, bankruptcy risk has declined most clearly in western and southwestern Finland. In Pirkanmaa, South Ostrobothnia, and Kanta-Häme, risk levels have dropped by 15% or more. The weakest development has occurred in South Savo, where bankruptcy risk has surged 91.24% compared with last year.

Method

The data used for this analysis is from the Dun & Bradstreet corporate database as of 2025-09-30. The analysis refers to active Finnish limited corporations (OY) within the observational and outcome period. September 2025 is compared with August 2025 and September 2024.

The risk of bankruptcy is the estimated risk that a limited corporation will file and register for bankruptcy with the courts within 12 months. The risk is derived by considering the corporate population at time T (the observational period) and tracking the frequency of bankruptcy of the same corporate population over time T+1 year (outcome period).

The analysis presents bankruptcy risk, frequency of bankruptcy as well as share of payment remarks in relation to comparative times as well as across industry and county. Industry is determined through the NACE (Statistical classification of economic activity).