[White Paper] Consumer Spending: A Beacon of Hope for Economic Revival

Learn Which Countries are Enjoying Economic Revival ...

In 2020 the economies of 86% of the countries tracked by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) saw a contraction, making Covid-19 the biggest economic shock since the Great Depression of 1929.

Overall, the global economy contracted by 3.3% in 2020 - compared to a contraction of 0.1% during 2009, the year following the global financial crisis - and global per capita income in 2020 regressed almost to 2017 levels. These figures could have been much worse were it not for the unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy support provided governments and central banks around the world during 2020.

Many countries are expected to cross their pre-pandemic levels of economic output in 2021, while others are showing nascent signs of a strong rebound in 2022. One of the leading indicators that offer hope for this optimistic growth outlook is the increase in consumer confidence levels.

... And Which Countries Still Pose a Significant Risk to Cross-Border Commerce

However, other countries have not experienced the same increase in consumer confidence. This white paper explores where there is opportunity – and where there is still significant risk – in conducting cross-border commerce. It analyzes the factors underpinning the increase in consumer confidence levels, as well as the potential factors that can generate stark divergences in the economic growth pattern of countries.

These factors are:

  • Improved public health led by vaccination
  • Improving economic activity supported by easing of restrictions
  • Improving labor market conditions
  • A pile-up of excess savings during the pandemic
  • The wealth effect led by robust asset appreciation

Read this white paper to learn where consumer spending is fueling economic revival and the factors that are shaping new opportunities - and where there is still significant risk.

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