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Global Reach

Country Insight Solutions

Identify risk and opportunity around the world. Click on any country to view its risk assessment for the current month. Select a date to view past heat maps.

Monthly Perspectives

The short-term global outlook is still qualified by the uncertainty created by the British electorate’s vote to leave the EU. Consumer and business surveys in the UK and EU have shown a sharp decline in confidence since the vote, which will transmit into lower spending and investment plans in the short term. Nevertheless, in July, financial market volatility fell from the levels seen in the week immediately after the vote, and even if downgrades to global growth forecasts for 2016 have become the norm, these are not all due to the ‘Brexit’ economic effect.  

As expected, the US dollar has strengthened, pushing the possibility of any Fed interest rate rise back to December. Meanwhile, the pound sterling and the euro have weakened in line with the ‘hunt’ for yield as longer and deeper monetary easing is expected, with investors continuing to pull equity funds out of Europe. In terms of commodities, by August, oil prices had fallen 20% since the UK’s vote, dragged lower by the strong dollar, resilient shale oil supply and prodigious product inventory buildups. Meanwhile, gold has strengthened as the zero returns from the precious metal begin to look attractive compared to negative yields on government bond issues.

Against this background, we are currently forecasting that global real GDP growth will slow to 2.2% in 2016, from 2.5% in 2015 and 2.7% the previous year; growth in the UK is set to fall to 1.3% in 2016, from 2.3% in 2015. 

 

Methodology

Dun & Bradstreet’s Global Heat Map enables assessment of risk and opportunity across 132 countries and regions. The map is updated every month and includes monthly changes in global risk and opportunity beginning in 1994. Dun & Bradstreet’s Country Insight Solutions team calculates global risk and opportunity scores using a comparative, cross-border assessment of the risk of doing business in a certain country. Each rating reflects the risk or opportunity that country-wide factors pose to potential export payments and investment returns. D&B country specialists distill data from Dun & Bradstreet’s global network of reporting offices and database of over 225 million company records. That information is further supported by national and international agencies such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and other multilateral organizations.

 

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